Climate change impact on thermal comfort in Mexico City housing

Abstract

A two storey terraced house was modelled in ESP-r with a simple window opening control strategy to represent typical dwellings found in Mexico City and the adjoining municipalities. Future weather data was generated for years in this century based on morphing methods developed from the literature and by the authors and a TMY weather file developed from historical data between 1975 to 1989 by WhiteBox Technologies. The population in the region under consideration is a little over 20 million which represents 16% of Mexico’s population. The present day climate is such that air conditioning is rarely used in single family housing. The main cooling strategy in the hottest months (Mid February to mid June) is window opening. This was modelled considering that if the interior temperature was at or above 18°C and the exterior air temperature was below the interior air temperature then windows would be open. The air flow was modelled using the flow network model within ESP-r. It was found that in the latter part of the present century, this strategy would become increasingly ineffective. This is likely to lead to a considerable increase in installed air conditioning in single family dwellings and a consequent increase in electricity demand and consumption leading to a need for substantial investments in electricity transmission and distribution systems in the region to bring in power from distant sources.